With the blockbuster news of US President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from candidacy for re-election on 21 July, the American political scene has been thrown into a veritable tornado of constant on and off-screen media and pundit posturing and unvalidated speculation on topics from A to Z.

What has changed in terms of potential impacts to financial services and fintech companies as a result of Biden’s decision and the increasing likelihood of VP Kamala Harris getting the Democratic Party nomination? How will current (and well-documented) positions and policies change at the presidential and cabinet levels, if at all, verses where things appeared to stand last month, when it was expected that the incumbent president would be facing Donald Trump in November?

Even if we took an educated guess based on recent actions and measures coming from the closely aligned Biden/Harris camps and the offices of the Treasury, Commerce, and Energy departments, it’s not really known for sure just what issues or policies might define a Harris candidacy or become priorities during her first term as president – though she has in the past been a frequent critic of large banks perceived to be overzealous in their sales practices or lacking in the consumer protection policy arena.

The national party delegates will in fact discuss and vote on a number of platform measures during the Democratic convention in Chicago beginning 19th August. This much more, er, “democratic” approach to creating a workable, communicable party policy statement is in contrast to what the Republicans have officially shared regarding many typical platform questions – which is not very much at this point.

At their own party convention last week in Milwaukee, it was famously reported that key delegates from the far fringes of its membership were required to surrender their cell phones on the day the platform was being shaped by the party’s national leaders – ostensibly to prevent leaks of any discussions or perhaps any dissent on the issues at hand, a list of which was carefully crafted and hand-delivered by Trump and his team.

Right now, much attention is being focused by political leaders and party operatives on hot button issues like opposition to the support of Ukraine in its war against Russia, and domestically on immigration policy and inflation complaints against Biden and his cabinet, not to mention furious prepping for Capitol Hill hearings this week. Monday was the first chance for legislators to grill the Secret Service regarding accused security lapses that may have contributed to the near-miss assassination attempt against Trump at a campaign event in Pennsylvania.

As for financial or fiscal policy projections, there has as yet been very little emphasis (nor documentation provided) on Trump’s planned actions on the economy should he win a second term. That’s the case even though his vice-presidential nominee Senator JD Vance – a former Silicon Valley venture capitalist as well a Marine veteran and bestselling writer and lawyer – has publicly and often stated his own views on financial issues like monetary policy, cryptocurrency, and income tax rates, not to mention his disdain for Wall Street traditionalists. He also has forged strong ties with, and secured millions in campaign contributions from, tech titans including Thiel and Elon Musk (both of PayPal founders fame and of course running many later companies) to David Sacks and several others.

To be fair, there are also a number of powerful Silicon Valley leaders supporting the Democratic cause. Money is talking exceptionally loudly and will surely keep doing so during the remainder of these 2024 elections.

More on fiscal and budget matters will probably be revealed in the coming weeks, though just how much Trump will allow his running mate Vance a forum to voice his own views on financial policies is not yet clear. Meanwhile, if Vice President Harris does consolidate enough votes ahead of the late August convention to become the presumptive nominee going in, we might get some previews during the platform discussions in Chicago of any policy changes planned to be announced in late summer - or during any debates with candidate Trump (or between whomever Harris and the Democrats chooses as her VP nominee and Republican VP choice Vance) that might follow.

For now, it’s likely that financial institutions of all stripes and sizes will keep planning for the Democrats – if they can win - to continue similar policies on spending and consumer protection within financial services that have marked the majority of Biden’s term in office.

As for Republicans, other than the former president’s repeated threats to slap 100% tariffs on Chinese imports and his promises to cut corporate tax rates, it’s not really known just yet where the chips will fall regarding fiscal policies of a new Trump administration. Amid this general uncertainty, there are still mounting predictions that a long expected one quarter point cut in the Fed Funds rate will finally happen in September, now that inflation has inched back closer to the Federal Reserve’s target of 2% annually in the most recent month’s reporting.

Finextra will keep our readers posted with the latest on likely and specific FI and fintech US election impacts and financial policy projections as they emerge. It’s sure to be a busy second half of the summer as more statements and details become available from the respective candidates and their parties – not to mention their many congressional colleagues also running for new terms in the fiercely contested legislative branch elections this November.