Uptober closes strong: Bitcoin nears all-time high amid election optimism

As "uptober" winds down, Bitcoin finds itself near record highs, briefly passing the $73,000 mark before pulling back slightly to around $72,300. The month has historically been favorable for Bitcoin, and this October was no exception, with BTC up 12% and rising over 8% in just the past week. 

The rally came amid heightened institutional interest, growing political support for crypto, and an upcoming economic report that could influence Bitcoin’s immediate path. Together, these elements have positioned Bitcoin on the edge of setting a new record as the U.S. election and key economic indicators loom.

Election optimism drives demand

Bitcoin’s surge has been fueled by the upcoming U.S. election, where many in the crypto community view Donald Trump as a crypto-friendly candidate. Trump has made headlines by pledging to transform the U.S. into the “crypto capital of the planet,” promising regulatory changes that have energized the market. 

Trump’s election platform includes replacing SEC Chair Gary Gensler, a move welcomed by crypto advocates, along with speaking at this year’s Bitcoin conference and launching his own crypto venture. On Polymarket, a crypto prediction platform, Trump currently leads with a 66% chance of winning, although traditional polling shows a tighter race with Vice President Kamala Harris.

Source: Polymarket

While Polymarket data indicates strong support for Trump, recent studies reveal some activity on the platform may be inflated by fraudulent accounts, introducing uncertainty around its predictions. Still, Trump’s active appeal to the crypto community has given him a notable edge with investors. 

In contrast, Vice President Harris has taken a more cautious pro-crypto stance, aligning closely with current administration policies. This has led to speculation that a Harris victory might dampen Bitcoin’s momentum, with some analysts projecting a potential price dip if she wins.

Amid this election-driven excitement, spot Bitcoin ETFs have continued to attract substantial inflows, which provide essential support for Bitcoin’s price stability and growth. Since October 11, ETFs have absorbed nearly $4 billion, with Tuesday alone seeing $870 million—making it the third-largest inflow day of the year. 

Source: Coindesk

Analysts believe these inflows show confidence from institutional investors seeking crypto exposure without directly holding assets, positioning ETFs as a strong stabilizing force for Bitcoin’s price in volatile times.

Economic data and market signals

Beyond the election, upcoming labor market data could play a crucial role in Bitcoin’s short-term direction. Benjamin Cowen, CEO of Into The Cryptoverse, pointed out that weaker job reports, which signal fewer jobs added, have historically led to Bitcoin rallies as investors anticipate a softer economy and potential for lower interest rates. For instance, following April’s jobs report, Bitcoin rose 6% as markets interpreted the labor data as an economic slowdown. 

Conversely, stronger job reports in June and July saw Bitcoin dip, correlating with the expectation of tighter economic policy. The upcoming labor report could thus significantly influence Bitcoin’s trajectory in the days ahead, with many investors watching closely to see if BTC will rally or retreat based on the data.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s market dominance is approaching a critical 60% threshold, reflecting its growing influence across the crypto sector. The Fear and Greed Index, a sentiment gauge, sits at 72—indicating “greed” and suggesting bullish expectations among investors. 

Source: Alternative.me

While this enthusiasm generally supports higher prices, high levels of greed can signal potential for market overheating. Any sudden shift, whether from economic data or regulatory news, could spur caution and lead to a sell-off.

Adding to the short-term analysis, AMBCrypto’s examination of Coinglass’s liquidation heat map reveals a significant liquidity zone around $68,900. This area could act as a “magnetic” level in the near term, where Bitcoin may either break higher or pull back, each scenario holding implications for the broader market.

Source: Coinglass

Beyond Bitcoin, other cryptocurrencies are reflecting this bullish sentiment. Ethereum and Solana posted respective gains of 4% and 5% this week, while Dogecoin, often linked to Elon Musk, jumped 23% after Musk mentioned the token at Trump rallies. Musk’s playful comments about potentially leading Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency—humorously dubbed “D.O.G.E.”—have excited Dogecoin fans, adding a unique flavor to the market’s rally.

As "uptober" wraps up, Bitcoin’s gains reflect both historical trends and the influence of external factors, including political dynamics and economic data. Analysts like Michael Terpin, CEO of Transform Ventures, suggest that Bitcoin is in a phase where it typically performs well, with a Trump win potentially accelerating its trajectory. Even with a Harris win, Bitcoin’s current momentum and solid institutional backing through ETFs and OTC reserves provide support for continued growth. With the elections just around the corner, traders are hopeful that Bitcoin’s uptober success will carry forward, marking another pivotal month for the world’s largest cryptocurrency.

At the time of writing, BTC is holding around the $72,000 mark, with bullish signals evident as the price stays above the 100-day moving average. However, the price touching the upper Bollinger band as RSI breaches the 70 mark hints at overbought conditions. This means that a slowdown could be in the offing.

Buyers looking to test all-time highs could struggle to go past the upper Bollinger band at $72,800. Sellers, on the other hand, could find support at the $68,700 and $66,500 price levels.

Source: Deriv MT5

Disclaimer:

The information contained within this article is for educational purposes only and is not intended as financial or investment advice.

It is considered accurate and correct at the date of publication. Changes in circumstances after the time of publication may impact the accuracy of the information.

The performance figures quoted refer to the past, and past performance is not a guarantee of future performance or a reliable guide to future performance.

No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Do your own research before making any trading decisions.