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Reaction To Interest Rate Cut

One hopes that the MPC has considered fully what will be the consequences of the rate cut.  Presumably, they think that this cut will help get the economy moving by encouraging people to spend.  I'm not so sure, however.

Yes, it will help in terms of reducing interest costs for business (assuming the cut gets passed on.  Remember that for some companies their loan facilities are at fixed rates, so the only benefit is in Base Rate linked borrowing), but I'm not so sure for the private individual.  That depends on the circumstances they find themselves in.  I did a few thought experiments to put myself in a range of situations and think therefore how my behaviour might change.  This assumes that some or all of the rate cut is passed on.

If I was a low-income earner, struggling with a mortgage and credit card debts, I think I'd either a) maintain my repayment as it is, or b) breathe a sigh of relief that I didn't have to push up my card debt still further.  A rate cut at this point is a good opportunity to start reducing the debt mountain, rather than spending more, since more of the monthly payment goes to reducing the principal, not paying interest.  This of course assumes I wasn't on an interest-only mortgage.

If I was a middle income earner, with mortgage and credit card debts, I'd be doing exactly what the lower income earner was doing.

If I was a middle income earner with no/little debts, I probably wouldn't benefit.  If I was likewise with savings, then I'd be reducing spending for two reasons.  1)  I would now be getting less interest income to spend and 2) I know that in 2011 I'm going to be taxed to death, so I'd better save up.

If I was a pensioner, relying on interest income to get by or supplement a pension, I'd cry.  I'd certainly be spending less, if I can. 

If I was a business that sold imported goods, I think I'd be more worried about my margins, as the cost of imported goods will undoubtedly go up as the pound sinks further, whilst my ability to raise prices remains pretty restricted.  Who would I fire next?

Of course, this is my opinion only.  I hope I'm wrong but I bet the above applies in more cases than it doesn't.  I also hope that the MPC thought down to this level when it decided to do what it has done and is already thinking about what to do next if the personal spending increase doesn't materialise.

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