First Man on Mars - a 13 years old?

NASA, The European Space Agency, the Russian and Chinese space programs all set the period of 2030-2040 as the likely target for a manned space mission to Mars. There's a healthy competition going on. 

The average age of NASA astronauts is 34, but when we talk about commanding a manned mission to a heavenly body, more experienced people take the helm. Neil Armstrong was 39 when he commanded Apollo 11; Pete Conrad was the same age commanding Apollo 12. 

Taking 2035 as an average target date, and 40 as the likely age of the mission commander, means that the first person to set a foot on Mars and be etched in the memory of mankind was born in 1995, and just turned 13. 

Isn't that cool.

Unlike such a prediction, no one knows what the future of online fraud will look like in 2035. No one can even imagine. And not just this far into the future. Even five years from now is a stretch. 

You could just assume that the current trends will continue; that's easy to do. It's also a futile exercise. A 19th-century Member of Parliament predicted that, given the rate of growth of traffic, London would be six feet deep in horse manure by 1910. It's probably just an urban legend, but it goes to show what "follow the trendline" analysis can do. Disruptive forces are at play, and the world is very dynamic.

Especially the economy of fraud. What adds to the complexity here is that it's not just about technological advancement and what fraudsters are capable of doing. It's also their incentives and the barriers we pose. Regulations like Faster Payment; New authentication strategies and risk controls; More easy-to-access (and risk prone) product offerings and many other factors influence the arms race with the fraudsters. They are very agile, quickly adapt, and are fast to exploit new vulnerabilities. 

Which means that in my mind, one of the most important criteria for selecting your defence strategy is: Flexibility.

If you build a flexible defence system that can adapt to changing needs, you're better off fighting the bad guys. 

Anyway, good luck to all 13 year olds - and send me a postcard from Mars.