This follows from the latest research by De Argumentenfabriek as commissioned by the Capital Amsterdam Foundation, following its report from 2019. The United Kingdom's withdrawal from the European Union on 31 December 2020 has not yet resulted in a major relocation of people and jobs from London to the Netherlands.

Five years after the UK referendum, the outflow from London to the EU is expected to continue. There is little chance that the EU will grant equivalent access rights to financial companies based in the UK anytime soon. Asset managers and banks have mostly relocated their activities from London to Dublin, Frankfurt Paris and Luxembourg, but hardly to Amsterdam; the strict Dutch remuneration rules have probably played a role in this. Due to the shift of the European financial center of gravity to the EU, the Dutch capital markets will benefit from further European integration and harmonisation.

Expectations
In the run-up to Brexit, the Capital Amsterdam Foundation commissioned an extensive study in 2019 into the expectations of Brexit for the Dutch financial sector and the capital markets in particular. The aim was to provide the interested public, the media and policymakers with an overview of the effects of Brexit on the Dutch capital markets and to make suggestions for possible future policies. The expectations have partly been met, but the results differ in some areas:

Trading in stocks and other financial products
Long before Brexit was even a word, around the Amsterdam stock exchange many companies were established that are active in the stock and derivatives trade. This ecosystem was expected to have a pull effect on comparable companies in the context of Brexit. This expectation has been fulfilled, as two-thirds of the financial companies that have come over from the UK are active or involved in this trade.

The speed and magnitude of the relocation of European equities trading to Amsterdam have exceeded expectations, by already tripling in volume in the first months of 2021. Derivatives trading such as interest rate swaps also saw a clear shift, and there is growth in the listing of new shares of international companies and Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs).

Relocation of people and jobs
In the run-up to Brexit, many financial companies have set up a 'minimum viable presence' in the EU as a fall-back option in the event of a hard Brexit in the realm of financial services. The hardest possible Brexit as expected in the 2019 report has indeed materialized. After Brexit, companies have started to expand this presence. The Netherlands Foreign Investment Agency (NFIA) estimates that around 1,000 new jobs have been created so far by financial firms that relocated their operations to Amsterdam since Britain left the EU. The number of jobs is expected to continue to grow. Until now, this has mainly concerned functions related to regulations and administration. It is striking that these positions are often filled locally, which has a positive effect on Dutch employment.

Presumably because of the Dutch remuneration rules, which are stricter than in the rest of the EU, it is not the top positions that will be moved to our country. This may explain why asset managers and banks have often relocated their activities from London to Dublin, Frankfurt, Paris and Luxembourg.

European integration and harmonization
The UK will gradually move away from the EU in terms of regulation to protect and grow their non-EU related activities. This creates the risk that there will also be competition within the EU in the field of regulation, because individual Member States expand European regulations (gold plating) or weaken them (lead plating).
The Dutch capital markets benefit from a level playing field within the EU, so the Dutch government will have to focus on further integration and harmonization of European financial regulations. Before Brexit, the Netherlands collaborated a lot with the UK in this area; now that it has fallen away as a partner, new allies will have to be sought to defend these interests.

Chairman of the Capital Amsterdam Foundation, Joost van der Does de Willebois: “It is fascinating what Brexit has brought about - and exposed - in the financial world in a short time. Our Foundation aims to contribute to a healthy Dutch capital market, which is essential for a well-functioning Dutch economy. We owe that to the rich stock exchange tradition of the Netherlands, with Amsterdam being the first and oldest stock exchange in the world. We are pleased that a large part of the financial trade is returning to Amsterdam, but we know better than anyone how much a level playing field, a good financial infrastructure and reliable and sound supervision are necessary for this. That we in the Netherlands cannot sit back in the expectation that it will all come to us. Once again, this report makes it clear that the Netherlands should still heed the age-old warning 'let op uw saeck' [keep an eye on your business]."