Organized crime—coordinated criminal enterprises profiting from a range of illegal activities—plays an increasingly dominant role in global criminality.
What’s more, it is shaping much of the global political agenda. From Donald Trump threatening to issue sweeping tariffs to try and tackle drug trafficking and illegal immigration in the United States to continued concern in the UK about small boats crossing the Channel with migrants, the collateral damage organized crime groups cause in pursuing their profits is shaping the political agenda worldwide.
However, exclusive research released today by ComplyAdvantage shows many senior compliance professionals lack the tools and guidance to combat it effectively. In a survey of 600 senior financial crime decision-makers across the payments and banking sectors in the Americas, Western Europe, and Asia-Pacific, 51% said they need more guidance on organized crime from regulators.
Even with additional regulatory guidance, legacy technology remains a barrier for many firms. 45%—almost half—say siloed datasets prevent them from identifying potentially connected criminal activities. In one recent example, Switzerland’s federal police force revealed an investigation that came to unearth a Europe-wide organized crime ring. The spark that ignited the investigation? The simple act of two neighboring countries submitting simultaneous police reports about the same suspicious vehicle.
Iain Armstrong, global regulatory affairs practice lead at ComplyAdvantage, said: “As the Swiss example shows, financial crime doesn’t respect the borders of any country or financial institution, and at the early stages of an investigation, connecting seemingly innocuous pieces of intelligence can be critical. It took four years for investigators to get from those initial police reports to uncovering a sophisticated organized crime operation that - we can assume - had been operating undetected for some time.
This example is just the tip of the iceberg. Throughout 2024, organized crime groups have proven adept at finding new markets into which to expand, particularly in areas like the trafficking of drugs and people.”
Drug trafficking trends to watch
In June 2024, the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) issued its annual World Drug Report 2024, which highlighted both a “record demand and supply” of well-known narcotics, as well as the growing use of new synthetic opioids. The trends noted include:
• A “surge” in the cocaine market, with increasing violence throughout major supply routes from Latin America, the Caribbean, and into Europe.
• The rise of nitazenes - synthetic opioids more addictive than fentanyl - began to account for a growing number of deaths by overdose in the developed world.
• The impact of decriminalizing cannabis and/or the legalization of its production and sale for non-medical uses in many jurisdictions has led many organized crime groups (OCGs) to diversify into higher-strength cannabis products.
• The “psychedelic renaissance” in the developed world led to a growth in the market for the illegal and unsupervised use of psychedelic drugs such as psilocybin and LSD.
Armstrong adds that: “From nitazenes to the rapid decriminalization of cannabis in markets like the US, organized crime groups will quickly shift their operations to accommodate the latest trends. Financial institutions cannot afford to stand still - rules and policies that effectively detect organized crimes in 2024 may not work as well in 2025. The criminals keep moving, so we do, too.”
The changing role of AI
Against the backdrop of growing organized crime complexity, 2025 marks a landmark year in which banks and payment firms will deploy AI across various applications. The ComplyAdvantage survey showed more than 90% of firms worldwide are already using AI in several capacities, including:
• GenAI tools like ChatGPT to generate reports.
• Analyzing historical transaction data.
• Prioritizing the greatest potential transaction monitoring alerts.
Despite the widespread deployment of AI, 91% of compliance leaders surveyed by ComplyAdvantage say they are either somewhat or very comfortable compromising explainability in exchange for greater automation and efficiency.
Armstrong notes, "Policymakers are putting the ability to explain decisions that could be as critical as whether to approve a loan or mortgage to both customers and regulators front and center in their AI regulatory roadmaps. While automation can improve efficiency, it can’t and shouldn’t come at the expense of explainability.”