Market intelligence agency IDC estimates that the total market for public key infrastructure (PKI) products and certificate authority (CA) services will accelerate at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 61%, from $281 million in 1999 to a whopping $3 billion in 2004.
Charles Kolodgy, research manager for IDC's internet security programme says PKI technology is moving from pilot testing into the real world of e-commerce. "New deployments of PKI technologies, including remote access, secure messaging, content delivery, and transactional security, demonstrate the technology's transition from the test track to the production roadway," he says.
Although PKI product and CA services will both grow strongly, IDC expects a revenue share role reversal between the two market segments. Whereas two-thirds of total PKI revenue was product-based in 1999, less than half of it will be from products in 2002. By 2004, CA services will represent almost 60% of total PKI revenue, says the research agency.
Despite the positive outlook, IDC describes PKI as a complex grouping of technologies that can still be difficult and expensive to deploy and which are overly reliant on PKI-enabled applications for success.