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@PeterRobinson: Not sure how this thing will work via MC but, in India, issuer banks have been offering this feature for several years. Just that it happens ex-post facto rather than at the POS. Typically, a day or two after the cardholder receives their monthly statement containing a particularly large charge, the bank calls them and offers to convert this charge to equated monthly installments. (More recently, online statements have started featuring a "Convert to EMI" hyperlink, so cardholder can opt for it without any human intervention from the bank.) As far as I know, the switch to EMI happens without any APR. Sometimes, there's a small fee but that's also rare. Apparently, banks do this to ease the burden on the cardholder and thereby boost loyalty - rather than make money via APR. On the contrary, deferred payments attract hefty APR.

Great post. Apart from paperless transaction and real time settlement - two benefits that are already available in some existing systems - I haven't been able to figure out the true value proposition of Blockchain.

On a side note, can only Finextra "insiders" like @DirkKinvig post an image in the comment?:) I've never seen a picture icon in the comments toolbar. I still can't see one.

When many people run out of cash, they run to the nearest ATM:) Many merchants have told me to do the same when I refuse to pay by cash and they're (temporarily) unable to accept credit cards due to POS / network / server malfunction. Nevertheless, I do know several people who spend only whatever cash they have at that moment (despite merchants' efforts to point them to the nearest ATM). Therefore, I agree that cash can serve as a powerful control over spending for a lot of people.

Ah, that sounds better.

@AlexanderP:

I agree but (1) Contactless is not just technology in TfL buses, it is execution, and it has been that way at least as far back as 2007 when I was in UK (I don't remember ever using cash for a single TfL bus ride). (2) There has to be a limit to how long execution can take, especially in fast-moving technologies, otherwise it could become obsolete by the time it goes live!

If only bus operators executed tech as rapidly as their buses ran, I'm sure this can happen much earlier than 2022!

"...nearly half (45%) of that group (of Millennials) also said that they’re more likely to pay more with cash now than they did a few years ago."

Cash still king for many consumers

I've long held that shifts between cash and noncash payment methods are bidirectional. This article shows that this is true even of Millennials.

The social impact of this can't be great. As a career technology professional, I'm not too happy about that. But a clear downward trend in staffing is already visible, at least in some areas of banking: One of my banks is clearly downsizing its Relationship Management organization as I'd highlighted here: http://qwt.io/s_ketharaman/oGxk. That said, in high growth economies like India, banks are still investing in branch networks. This would push the hiring trajectory upwards.

2022? If I can predict that cash will still be around then I guess these bus operators are entitled to expect that contactless will still be hot then.

The bank is talking about steps taken to propel to 21st century. Let's not forget that we're already 16 years into the 21st century. So what if Internet Banking has been around for 10+ years and Mobile Banking, for 5+ years? They seem digital enough to me. Like I highlighted in http://qwt.io/s_ketharaman/PDSh, banks have been digitally savvy for quite long, it's just that they haven't marketed themselves as well as neobanks. This is a step in that direction.

@TomHay:

I agree with your conclusion, "Handling the resulting...instant payment schemes". When banks refuse to provide a merchant acquirer account to small merchants - the typical target audience and raison d'être of SQUARE et al - I suspect it's because of a similar risk of liquidity in the event of chargeback.

I've read about the failure of Herstatt Bank hours before settlement, which led to the founding of CLS Bank. I also know that some banks failed during the GFC. Maybe I'm naive but, to me, they all seem like Black Swan events and I've always wondered if

This one-off risk should hamper real time payments;

There wasn't some insurance product to mitigate this risk? After all, investment banks have been innovative enough to come up with CDS type of insurance products that cover seemingly more exotic and unpredictable risks.