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Great list.

Apropos your very first prediction, I totally agree: I'd recently tweeted that "Banks have drastically cut down on loans to SMBs. Online lenders don't need innovation in lending but in recovery of outstandings." (https://twitter.com/s_ketharaman/status/679308407107657728)

Apropos "Banks roll out their own wallet solutions, ensues a real digital wallet war for retail payment domination.", well there are many bank mobile wallet solutions in India and I personally think one of them beats all TELCO and nonbank wallets hollow: HDFC Bank's PayZapp Ends My Bill Payment Woes

Ever since ICICI Bank launched its icicidirect.com e-brokerage 16-18 years ago, I've been doing all my stock trading without paper and on T+2 settlement periods. From what I understand of algo trading, it has been supporting paperless trades and near real time settlement for nearly 10 years. So I'm wondering what's so exciting about Blockchain-based trading?

Sorry, I should've linked to this post:

Mobile Wallet Has Few Takers - Even At Starbucks

When we can rave about Starbucks mobile payments when only 1 out of 10 payments happened via mobile payments, why can't we say contactless is the preferred payment? Just asking...

Accelerating Mobile Wallet Adoption By Fixing What's Broken

When it comes to revenues, banks sell better at branch. When it comes to costs, branch may be the costliest place for doing business so but progressive businesses are more obsessed about increasing revenues than cutting costs. I said it here: Secret Of Survival Of Bank Branches.

But I’m not the only one:

#1. The Tale Of The Digital Banks

http://www.gonzobanker.com/2015/07/thetaleofthedigitalbanks/

QUOTE

• Yet while the demos and screen shots at events like Finovate have provided fascinating fodder regarding the future of digital banking, the FACTS show that these buzzworthy players (such as Simple, Moven, GoBank and BankMobile.) have had INFINITESIMAL IMPACT ON MARKET SHARE.
• But here’s the real clincher: in the same period that the TOP 10 INTERNET ONLY BANKS GREW DEPOSITS BY $175 BILLION, THE THREE MAJOR LEGACY RETAIL POWERHOUSES – CHASE, WELLS AND BANK OF AMERICA – GREW DEPOSITS BY $1.27 TRILLION. Holy cow!

ENDQUOTE

#2. Mobile Banking Grows, But BRANCHES STILL DRIVE BUSINESS

http://thefinancialbrand.com/55758/mobile-banking-branch-delivery-channels/

QUOTE

• The mobile channel continues to gain ground with banking consumers, BUT PHYSICAL BRANCHES REMAIN CENTRAL TO THE RETAIL DELIVERY STRATEGY for most institutions.

ENDQUOTE

Why have traditional banks outperformed digital-only banks? Is it

• By virtue of their branch networks? OR
• Because, God forbid, they have superior digital technology compared to digital-only banks? OR
• Owing to factors that have nothing to do with branch-versus-nonbranch channel mix?

IMO:

Traditional banks with branches have not only sustained themselves but flourished despite dire predictions to the contrary. Branch still remains central to retail banking. Going by one after another announcement by fintech companies announcing partnership with traditional banks after having threatened to disrupt them in the past – e.g. TransferWise (https://www.finextra.com/news/fullstory.aspx?newsitemid=28281) – I’m wondering if digital-only banks are now fearing disruption by traditional banks.

But, Finextra readers, please review the facts and decide for yourselves.

Season’s Greetings!

I keep reading the digerati calling out bank or other finserv providers for lack of this and lack of that without ever listing what exactly they want that banks and FSPs don't provide. It's refreshing to come across an actual wishlist. Some of your items are / were already available.

#1: PayByTouch and SQUARE tried this via fingerprint and photo years ago. Unfortunately, both products died due to lack of consumer offtake.

#2: Cash! Noncash: How much surcharge will you be willing to pay?

#3: Cash! Credit card. Both work 24/7/365.

#4: International credit card. Keeps you shielded from LCY.

#5: Cash! Noncash - PayPal, Venmo, Chillr, etc.

#6: Any scheduled bank with deposit protection guarantee. 

Have you tried them? What limitations, if any, did you face with them?

Disruption. Noun. Disturbance or problems which interrupt an event, activity, or process. http://www.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/english/disruption

Disrupt. Verb. To cause (something) to be unable to continue in the normal way. http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/disrupt

I hate to prolong this, especially in this direction, but I can't help it if there are several dictionaries!

@ChrisYaldezian:

I don't know of any SQUARE-clones from banks but taking your word that there are, here's my take: It's NOT at all because they want to have the merchant acquirer relationship - because they already have it with SQUARE et al. Nor is to become a merchant aggregator like SQUARE - most banks I know won't touch a typical SQUARE merchant with a 40 feet bargepole because of their higher risk profile. It's because some merchants they already have a merchant acquirer relationship with do a lot of cash business today e.g. COD business of ecommerce giants like Flipkart, Amazon India. By empowering such merchants to take cards via wireless POS / mPOS at the point of delivery, they hope to convert the cash transaction to credit / debit card, thus earning a new source of interchange. The interchange % is the same as the normal interchange rate but it's applicable on a bigger pie.

My definition of disruption is death / ceasing to exist. IMO, one dollar dropping to 75 cents is "decline", not disruption / death. But you're free to have your own definition. 

@BrettKing: Branch banking still popular with Americans;))

@BrettKing:

In your post I cited above (If you're investing in branches - look out), you wrote: "The current network of branches for most retail behemoths has absolutely no chance of survival in the near future. I'm not talking 10 years out here... I'm talking in the next 2-3 years." That was in 2011. To me that sounds like you predicted the death of branches by 2014. It's 2015 now. Branches are still around. In some countries like India, they're increasing in count. The title of this latest Bankrate article says it all about USA: Branch banking still popular with Americans. To me, death means ceasing to exist. That simply hasn't happened. Now talking about centricity of branch banking, reduction in centricity sounds like decline, not death, even to a person like me who you say is unfamiliar with nuance.   

I'd also look carefully at the reason given in the Bankrate article for people visiting branches: Not because they're old; not because they're tech unsavvy; but because people are "anxious about money and feel like seeing where their money is" aka branch. As we know, anxiety about money is a cyclical thing, so branch visits will also be cyclical. This totally resonates with my oft-expressed view that transitions from physical to online can also work in the reverse direction.

For all the BORDERS moment, don't forget the OYSTER moment when the eBook store shut down recently. According to this NYT article, "EBook Sales Slip, and Print Is Far From Dead". Don't also forget public announcements from TJX and Ross about increasing their physical store presence in USA. So physical and online companies can both shut down, that's a reflection of individual companies' performance, not necessarily the innate strengths of one channel over the other.