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Great idea.  Plastic cards are being replaced by digital contactless alternatives, but in the meantime, why not lessen their impact?

John Cryan the then CEO of Deutsche Bank (who commisioned this research) tweeted in Davos in 2016 that cash will be gone in 10 years: 

Cash, I think, in ten years’ time probably won’t exist. There will be no need for it: John Cryan  http://wef.ch/1ny9SBa   #wef #futurefinance

This article poses a very different view.  Both are clearly wrong.  Nothing is here to stay.  Nothing.  It's not a question of whether cash will go, but when cash will go.  10 years?  No.  50 Years? In some countries, yes.  In 100 Years?  Probably.

To say that cash is here to stay is as ludicrous as saying that cash will disappear by 2016.  IMHO

Number of customers will always outnumber active customers and this definition of active is the strictest (1 month).  But even then, 14% is a very low active rate.  That compares to the worst prepaid programmes I have seen.  By the way I had to look up the word "spruik".  Never heard of it before!

:-)

Agree that the sneakers is an odd example to highlight.  I think most IOT players are desperate to get away from the connected fridge example but there are so many more interesting examples that could be highlighted.  The "running shoes" example raises so many objections in consumers' minds the moment it is mentioned.  Why?  What if I run on soft terrain, will it adapt?  I don't need to be told when to by new shoes, etc...but my gas boiler connected to the a dynamic price checker, maybe.  My lights choosing the most efficient day/night tariff for elecrticity...possibly.  The Jaguar/Shell example is better, although needs to be broader than petrol to make a case.

Still, I find this tie up very interesting.  I think it's a good move.  IBM and Visa could be aiming to be the ingredient element for all things IOT.  "Intel Inside approach". 

I wonder if the commenter means "...as well as or better than cash..."?

:-)

I suppose this all depends on what exposure you have to evolving payments in your market today.  Last week I paid for my round at the pub with my watch.  The waiter simply walked up and I put the watch on the terminal and that was that.  No delay, no friction, no change, and my funds were in the account earning (little) interest right up until the time of payment rather than from when it was withdawn from an ATM.

Not sure what is happening with interchange in your market, but the lowering of interchange in Europe is making that alternative you speak of a reality.  Low or zero interchange could do more for the war on cash than contactless is doing.

The fact is we are all guessing.  I think it is a fascinating debate and the great thing is that none of us will be around to prove anyone wrong in 2100!

I don´t think the writer knows what people think about the timing of the ultimate irradication of cash.  I think most people are realistic and realise that it is not around the corner but I very much doubt that anyone could imagine folding paper money still being around in the year 2100, for example.  In my opinion, people who say "cash is here to stay" have very little vision.

Melvin - I suppose it depends on how much you can foresee in the future.  I can foresee a future without cash therefore it is in my foreseeable future.  I note that you can´t foresee this future.  The more interesting debate is when that future might come and I suspect it will not happen in the next 2 decades, and in some markets it may take until the end of this century, but foreseeable nonetheless.

And I wouldn´t necesarily conclude that very little headway is being made. Payment card purchases grew 10.9% in the same period as the 2% growth in cash withdrawals and I suspect that cash will begin to decline as new categories and payment channels open up.

Just like other wars, you have to fight cash on several fronts.  It won´t be won by mobile alone, or by contactless, or by purchasing cards, but a combination of all new form factors and better education about the downsides of cash.  

It shrinks in value, it´s dirty, it´s untraceable, it´s expensive, it´s risky. (And yes, I know the untraceability is a virtue for some). 

The war on cash will be won but the "less cash" era will precede the "cashless" era.

I know it is only a mock-up, but where did they find this vintage MasterCard logo for their card design??  That version of the logo went out in 1996!  That´s the first Beta feedback ;-)