Europe - Does it get worse?

This story just will not go away, Portugal, Greece, Ireland - a throw of the dice and millions more pumped into a black hole whilst our fine friends in Brussels are in denial and want to increase their budgets and spending right across the board. I know what my message would be.

On the 6th May I blogged https://www.finextra.com/blogs/fullblog.aspx?blogid=4044 to say that I thought Greece could signal a bail out of the Euro and the more I read the more I think this will happen. Angela Mekel has seen the warning signs and believes the ban on short selling will stem the flow. Unfortunately this is the financial equivalent of applying a neck brace to a broken leg. The reason is that the ban on short selling won't alter the fact that Greece's fundamental problem is wasted years of cash injections from the Euro zone frittered away, state earnings are low and yet the underlying costs have grown. One might suggest that Greeces entry into the Euro zone was a massive sleight of hand with fudged figures, forecasts and balance sheets but in the name of the good ship Europe, and in a relative boom time, who cared about a minor blemish. Well the blemish is turning into an open wound and getting worse, the Greek trade unions appear to be in denial and the new austerity measures are set for a rocky ride.

There is no way that a two tier Euro can be introduced but Greece could withdraw and have the ability to devalue and manage its own currency; the tax payers of Europe would draw a collective sigh of relief. If the problem persists heads of state will find themselves at odds with their own electorate and if the main source of funds, Germany, falls out of love with the whole idea what price an even larger fall out.

Time to brush off the old currency pairs, what odds a $/drachma and $/escudo by end of 2012?