Is the card fraud profile changing?

The long awaited APACS fraud figures for 2008 show a predictable increase in fraud, pretty much across the board with the main increases in Counterfeit and Card-Not-Present.

The APACS response to this is to raise two main points; Firstly, the percentage of fraud against the total turnover has actually remained fairly stable over the years. Secondly, the fraud categories which the Chip & PIN technology were implemented to safeguard are indeed 'in check'.

These are arguable points to sweeten the pill of increased fraud figures but there are many ways to present statistical data. One way which is not presented is the relative changes of each card fraud type against the total fraud for that year.

If you compare these figures then Lost/Stolen is down from 10% of all fraud in 2007 to 9% in 2008. Card-Not-Present fraud and mail non-receipt are both steady at 54% and 2% respectively. While Counterfeit is up by 1% (27% in 2007 up to 28% in 2008) and Identity Theft is up by a whole 2% at 8% of total fraud in 2008 from 6% in 2007.

Does this way of cutting the figures show us anything new? I think it does.

You can safely expect overall fraud to increase while overall turnover is also increasing. If they are increasing at the same rate (which they are) then at least your weaknesses aren't getting any worse! But the increase in counterfeit and especially the increase in Identity theft could indicate a new trend in the fraudsters M.O.

Ultimately, the bigger fraud figures on the page draw more attention and will therefore be tackled first by the banks, and possibly that's the correct way to do it as it leads to greater cost efficiencies. However, we should also be aware of today's change in trend which could lead to tomorrows number one fraud.