Why mobiles will rule locally and globally

Because they can, for the very same reasons that Visa (accepted everywhere) dominates over any instrument only accepted locally including cash currency.

Mobile transactions will be the 'accepted anywhere, don't leave home without it' solution for purchasing either in-store or on the net for the vast majority of consumers within 5 to 10 years. Only the oldies will hold on to their cards and they, like the cards, won't live forever.

Anyone who thinks that a localised transaction solution has any future, has no future in the business.

Mobile transactions have the potential to reduce fees for consumers and merchants and still be more profitable for the provider. The cost of establishing a global mobile transaction network, independent of any involvement by the telco's in the transaction is a mere $400 million. I haven't seen anything more economical.

No other solution can come close, and certainly not any solution where a telco is in the transaction.

Any solution where you have to wait for the customer to buy a new phone (aka NFC) is nearly 3 billion phones behind in the deployment race. We could wait 5 years and still pip the NFC horse at the post.

NFC just isn't going to make it. Currently NFC relies on quasi-government support with transit and security. They won't be supporting it much longer. The mobile solution is what every government dreams of in relation to cutting costs, introducing efficiencies and providing security and preventing many types of fraud. Not just ID and card fraud but medical fraud and welfare fraud. It is the answer to many of their problems, and it will cost them peanuts to deploy it. The benefits will be enormous, both for government and citizens. Governments will save billions of dollars.

It makes a lot more sense than spending billions on cards and readers.

As for citizens, do they want more cards and readers or better mobile networks?