A Finextra member 01 October, 2008, 10:15 0 likes

Interesting stats. Does this mean in 20 years Americans will be using some other fuel to get them to their fast food joints? Sadly I think their economy will run on the new heavy oil boom from two countries: Canada and Venezuela, both of which have oil sands reserves approximately equal to the world's total reserves of conventional crude oil.

A Finextra member 01 October, 2008, 11:52 0 likes

Definitely food for thought.

Being an optimist I expect we'll soon see some breakthrough in physics which might help out a little. Oil will be essential until we rejig our whole crazy farm to market infrastructure. We've built cities and suburbs in our most fertile water catchments when they may have been better placed on less productive ground. Electric cars sound great but there aren't enough batteries to substitute for oil.

Most cities are where they are because of shipping. Ships require oil. It's clear that nuclear powered ships won't be popular, especially if they're likely to steam the Horn of Africa and be captured by pirates, but it's either that or go back to sail.

At the end of the sailing era there were some very big ships making good time under sail and there's no reason JIT couldn't be tweaked to account for sailing times which would be greatly improved by modern technology. That would still be problematic for perishables.

It would be ironic to see things go full circle, perhaps cruise lines are the first.

Unfortunately we will probably see nuclear powered heavily armed ships cruising the oceans of a future without oil and the rest of us will be pedaling bicycles.

A Finextra member 01 October, 2008, 16:38 0 likes

I spoke to someone recently who is planning to convert his swimming pool into a petrol tank.

Even filling it at 115.9 p per litre, he thinks his children will be able to retire on its value 20 years out. I'd be tempted to sell those solar electricity futures and invest in a pool with a fireproof liner, and some nice natural foliage around it, for security.

Thus, the hedge is built into the investment itself.

I call this "Privet Equity".

:)

A Finextra member 02 October, 2008, 08:53 0 likes

Although there have not been any new refineries built in the US the existing refineries have been upgraded and extended so there is no shortage of refinery capacity in the US. In fact most refineries have been running below capacity due to the low crack spreads, i.e. it is not profitable. Thus the US imports a fair amount of gas/petrol. Refineries have and are being built around the world in particular to handle heavy sour crudes which we are now having to use.

"heavy oil boom" if you think that tar sands are going to replace the declining oil output then think again. The very highest projections show about 5m barrels/day from Canada vs some 75m barrels/day from conventional. The current methods of extracting oil from tar sands require large quantities of natural gas and water. Natural gas is of course another fossil fuel and also finite. The Canadian tar sands have been described as The Most Destructive Project on Earth, see:

http://www.environmentaldefence.ca/reports/tarsands.htm

Andrew, love your "privet equity" but remember Buncefield oil depot, better off buying options:-) For a reminder see:

http://www.buncefield-oil-fire-hemel-hempstead.wingedfeet.co.uk/

We need to move away from our culture burning oil to move one person in a heavy vehicle. James Hansen the foremost climate scientist says "CO2 will need to be reduced from its current 385 ppm to at most 350 ppm. If the present overshoot of this target CO2 is not brief, there is a possibility of seeding irreversible catastrophic effects." Only last week The Independent had an exclusive report on methane being released into the air in the Arctic. If we hit one of these tipping points then it is irreversible and it is game over.

http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/exclusive-the-methane-time-bomb-938932.html

Just how difficult is it to say no more gas guzzlers starting from now?

A Finextra member 10 October, 2008, 01:28 0 likes

Great thread guys...informative, thought provoking and dressed up with the odd pun.

It's funny the way governments respond to this 'gas guzzling' car business...Australia has for some considerable time penalised diesel and LPG users by taxing them more than regular unleaded...bonkers if you ask me!

A question I have though is how much lead and other poisons are used to manufacture batteries and what happens to all of the discarded batteries that will be produced as a result of people switching to electric hybrid cards?

Maybe water/hydrogen powered is the only way forward?