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For a traded commodity like valuation, true value = market value. If you try to buy OpenAI at $1B, good luck finding anybody willing to sell it to you at that price, however much you can justify that it's only worth $1B. Market Value has meaning only until something is traded, after that "ticker is god", and market value estimation is academic exercise.

This is one of those things that have not changed in my 40 years of selling B2B technology across various industries including banking, financial services, and fintech. It's not that customers don't ask questions around "Detailed scope documentation", "expertise", and "dramatically lower estimates" but that they often lack the know-how required to evaluate the answers given by vendors. The problem is exacerbated by the fact that even the most solid vendor will not give guarantees on performance, timelines and other critical KPIs (because they can't - since these KPIs depend on too many variables that are outside the control of the vendor).

The one way I've come across to work around this problem is to appoint third party consulting firms to do the scoping, evaluate vendors' expertise and validate estimates given by vendors. But that's often a costly exercise and therefore restricted to large customers. We see the same problem going through rinse-repeat cycle among SMB customers. 

The Intelligence wave actually preceded the Mobility wave with the emergence of MINT and other PFM and MoMMA apps in ca. 2007. You've probably forgotten about it because it didn't do anything worth remembering. Whatever capability you're projecting for AI Native Finance was touted in the era of Big Data, Analytics, etc. Still traditional banks are standing tall and have grown by leaps and bounds in the last 20 years.

But even a broken clock is right twice a day, so anything is possible. I'll go out on a limb and predict that, if AI Native Finance does things like automatically moves deposits to higher yield accounts - instead of just recommending to customers to make the move - it might succeed where traditional PFM and MoMMA apps have failed for the last 20 years. Even then, banks have as much chance as leveraging the technology than nonbanks and fintechs, just after a few years and with several friction hotspots.